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UK child detention figures expose a gap the Home Office cannot litigate away
Nearly 100 children held as adults under the UK-France migration accord, documented now by the scrutiny body t…
Kennedy Center board restores Trump's name to Washington landmark
62%.…
Ukraine proposes civilian shipping truce as Black Sea grain corridor collapses
62%.…
Israeli forces use Qusra homes as barracks amid settler violence
62% — that Palestinian civilian displacement in the northern West Bank accelerates from tactical to systematic…
EOR in 150 Countries: The Hiring Infrastructure Prediction Markets Are Built On
The firms winning prediction market intelligence hire globally. Deel handles the compliance in 150+ countries.
Europe's heat dome forces a nuclear shutdown the grid cannot absorb
The Cernavodă closure removes 20% of Romanian electricity supply at the precise moment a continent-wide heat d…
Mangione plea talks open a federal stalking statute few lawyers have tested
Prediction markets have been pricing Luigi Mangione's federal exposure with the confidence of people who have …
Romania shuts Cernavodă nuclear plant as Danube drought deepens Europe's power crisis
It is 20% of national electricity generation, and it is offline because the Danube has dropped to a level at w…
UK seizes shadow fleet tanker as legal framework for interdiction hardens
Gambity Prestige puts the probability that the UK successfully defends its shadow fleet interdiction authority…
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DRC's Ebola outbreak reaches a sixth province as WHO warns of record scale
The 2014-2016 West Africa outbreak killed more than eleven thousand people.…
Karoline Leavitt leaves the White House podium three months before midterms
The gap between Karoline Leavitt's departure and a confirmed replacement is 83% likely to narrow within ten da…
Zambia's election puts Hichilema's second term in doubt
Hichilema ran in 2021 on a reform mandate the electorate understood.…
Sydney runway near-misses expose regulatory failure in Australian aviation
I would bet 62% that a formal operational suspension or mandatory procedural stand-down at Sydney is imposed w…
300,000 Founders Bank With Mercury. Most Never Set Foot in the US.
A US business bank account in ten minutes. No branch visit. No minimum balance.
Putin's Kuril visit sharpens Japan's territorial claim at the UN
62%.…
Frasers Group acquires Harvey Nichols from administration
Frasers Group has acquired the majority of Harvey Nichols sites out of administration, and the probability tha…
Romania loses a fifth of its grid as the Danube runs dry
My signal on Romanian power-sector stress reaching acute phase — defined as rolling blackouts or emergency imp…
Europe's heat corridor becomes a pricing problem prediction markets have not yet solved
The 40°C threshold expanding across Spain on 13 August 2026 is not, by itself, the signal.…
Raw Spreads on EUR/USD: What Prediction Market Traders Actually Use
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