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UK child detention figures expose a gap the Home Office cannot litigate away
Regulatory Watch

UK child detention figures expose a gap the Home Office cannot litigate away

Nearly 100 children held as adults under the UK-France migration accord, documented now by the scrutiny body the Home Office itself appointe…

82% — UK child detention ruled unlawful
Victoria Blackwell · 1h ago
Most Signalled
1
82% — UK child detention ruled unlawful · Prestige
2
82% — Australian aviation systemic failure priced · Prestige
3
81% — UK shadow fleet seizure survives court challenge · Prestige
4
78% — White House names Leavitt replacement by Aug 23 · Prestige
5
78% — West Bank displacement turns systematic · Prestige
UK child detention figures expose a gap the Home Office cannot litigate away
Regulatory Watch

UK child detention figures expose a gap the Home Office cannot litigate away

Nearly 100 children held as adults under the UK-France migration accord, documented now by the scrutiny body t…

82% · UK child detention ruled unlawful · Prestige
Victoria Blackwell · 1h ago
Kennedy Center board restores Trump's name to Washington landmark
Trade Desk

Kennedy Center board restores Trump's name to Washington landmark

62%.…

22% · Congress codifies Kennedy Center rename · Prestige
Sebastian Montague · 1h ago
Ukraine proposes civilian shipping truce as Black Sea grain corridor collapses
Intelligence Brief

Ukraine proposes civilian shipping truce as Black Sea grain corridor collapses

62%.…

22% · shipping truce agreement reached · Prestige
Diana Pemberton · 2h ago
Israeli forces use Qusra homes as barracks amid settler violence
Crisis Watch

Israeli forces use Qusra homes as barracks amid settler violence

62% — that Palestinian civilian displacement in the northern West Bank accelerates from tactical to systematic…

78% · West Bank displacement turns systematic · Prestige
James Harrington · 2h ago
Deel
Markets Partner

EOR in 150 Countries: The Hiring Infrastructure Prediction Markets Are Built On

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Deel · Sponsored
Europe's heat dome forces a nuclear shutdown the grid cannot absorb
Macro

Europe's heat dome forces a nuclear shutdown the grid cannot absorb

The Cernavodă closure removes 20% of Romanian electricity supply at the precise moment a continent-wide heat d…

35% · Romania avoids rotating blackouts · Prestige
Eleanor Ashworth · 3h ago
Mangione plea talks open a federal stalking statute few lawyers have tested
Legal

Mangione plea talks open a federal stalking statute few lawyers have tested

Prediction markets have been pricing Luigi Mangione's federal exposure with the confidence of people who have …

58% · Mangione federal case resolves via plea · Prestige
Victoria Blackwell · 3h ago
Romania shuts Cernavodă nuclear plant as Danube drought deepens Europe's power crisis
Strategy

Romania shuts Cernavodă nuclear plant as Danube drought deepens Europe's power crisis

It is 20% of national electricity generation, and it is offline because the Danube has dropped to a level at w…

22% · Romania avoids winter electricity shortfall · Prestige
Sebastian Montague · 4h ago
UK seizes shadow fleet tanker as legal framework for interdiction hardens
Political Markets

UK seizes shadow fleet tanker as legal framework for interdiction hardens

Gambity Prestige puts the probability that the UK successfully defends its shadow fleet interdiction authority…

81% · UK shadow fleet seizure survives court challenge · Prestige
Diana Pemberton · 4h ago
Bolt Business
Strategy Partner

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Bolt Business · Sponsored
DRC's Ebola outbreak reaches a sixth province as WHO warns of record scale
Risk

DRC's Ebola outbreak reaches a sixth province as WHO warns of record scale

The 2014-2016 West Africa outbreak killed more than eleven thousand people.…

28% · DRC Ebola surpasses 2014 death toll · Prestige
James Harrington · 5h ago
Karoline Leavitt leaves the White House podium three months before midterms
Markets

Karoline Leavitt leaves the White House podium three months before midterms

The gap between Karoline Leavitt's departure and a confirmed replacement is 83% likely to narrow within ten da…

78% · White House names Leavitt replacement by Aug 23 · Prestige
Eleanor Ashworth · 5h ago
Zambia's election puts Hichilema's second term in doubt
Commercial Law

Zambia's election puts Hichilema's second term in doubt

Hichilema ran in 2021 on a reform mandate the electorate understood.…

26% · Hichilema wins second term · Prestige
Kendall Cross · 6h ago
Sydney runway near-misses expose regulatory failure in Australian aviation
Fast Markets

Sydney runway near-misses expose regulatory failure in Australian aviation

I would bet 62% that a formal operational suspension or mandatory procedural stand-down at Sydney is imposed w…

82% · Australian aviation systemic failure priced · Prestige
Heath Quinn · 6h ago
Mercury
Trade Desk Partner

300,000 Founders Bank With Mercury. Most Never Set Foot in the US.

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Mercury · Sponsored
Putin's Kuril visit sharpens Japan's territorial claim at the UN
AI Markets

Putin's Kuril visit sharpens Japan's territorial claim at the UN

62%.…

72% · Japan UN Kuril escalation filed · Prestige
Zaid Al-Rashidi · 6h ago
Frasers Group acquires Harvey Nichols from administration
Commercial Law

Frasers Group acquires Harvey Nichols from administration

Frasers Group has acquired the majority of Harvey Nichols sites out of administration, and the probability tha…

78% · Frasers Harvey Nichols clears CMA review · Prestige
Kendall Cross · 7h ago
Romania loses a fifth of its grid as the Danube runs dry
Fast Markets

Romania loses a fifth of its grid as the Danube runs dry

My signal on Romanian power-sector stress reaching acute phase — defined as rolling blackouts or emergency imp…

79% · Romania grid acute stress six weeks · Prestige
Heath Quinn · 7h ago
Europe's heat corridor becomes a pricing problem prediction markets have not yet solved
AI Markets

Europe's heat corridor becomes a pricing problem prediction markets have not yet solved

The 40°C threshold expanding across Spain on 13 August 2026 is not, by itself, the signal.…

81% · European infrastructure failure this heatwave · Prestige
Zaid Al-Rashidi · 7h ago
Tickmill
Risk Partner

Raw Spreads on EUR/USD: What Prediction Market Traders Actually Use

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Tickmill · Sponsored